The projected national population of about 275 million a decade from now could place serious strains on the country, leading to higher levels of poverty, an expert on demographics warned on Wednesday. Sonny Harry B. Harmadi, head of the Institute of Demography, said that estimates that the country’s population could rise from the current 231 million to 275 million by 2025 held serious implications for major urban centers such as Jakarta. Rapid population growth could lead to higher competition for jobs in the national capital, particularly among people between the ages of 15 and 64, he said at a seminar on poverty and population this week. Kartomo Wirosuhardjo, one of the founders of the institute, said the expected population increase could pose serious problems. “If the number of people of productive age increases but they can’t get jobs, the unemployment rate will rise,” Kartomo said. High unemployment rates are associated with high levels of poverty. The country grappled with rapid population growth in the 1970s, but conditions could become much more serious by 2025, he said. There are currently 157 million Indonesians between the productive ages of 15 to 64 years, but that number could increase to 188 million people by 2025. According to the National Development Planning Board’s (Bappenas )projections, population growth rate will actually decelerate from 1.49 percent in the 1990s to 0.92 percent by 2020 as a result of slowing birth rates. Despite this, Indonesia would still have 273.1 million people by 2025. Haryono Suyono, head of the Dana Mandiri Foundation, said that by that year, death rates would likely be lower, partly due to improving living standards, leading to a larger number of elderly people, which could place serious strains on the economy. Bappenas projections show that life expectancy for Indonesians would increase from 67.8 years in 2000 to 73.6 years in 2025. Haryono emphasized the importance of making sure job creation kept pace with population growth. He said it was important for the private and public sectors to work together to create more employment opportunities, but added that regional authorities should exert more effort to generate jobs at the local level. At the same time, Haryono said younger people should be encouraged to be engage in entrepreneurial activities. Otherwise, he said the country could fail to achieve the United Nations Millennium Development Goals. “The government is trying to eliminate poverty in line with the Millennium Development Goals, but this simply will not happen if it fails to address the problems posed by rapid population growth and poor family planning,” Haryono said.
